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News • United States • 2013-03-28
2013 Tourism Outlook
For the national tourism economy, optimism seems to be the most prevalent attitude going into 2013. According to a variety of indicators, the overall economy is getting better. Unemployment is slowly declining; GDP has experienced modest growth; home values have increased; and disposable income has grown slightly. Most noteworthy, consumer confidence is at a 4 year high. Yet, federal fiscal uncertainty is poised to press a damper on consumer and investor confidence.
People are still traveling and tourism spending remains a highlight in our recovering economy - it has outperformed all other exports. Reaching pre-recession levels in 2011, it is projected to have risen 4.3 percent in 2012. For 2013, tourism is expected to continue this upward trend.
According to the US Travel Association and industry experts:
Travel industry employment remained significant, adding 81,000 jobs to 2012 labor numbers.
In leisure travel, advanced bookings for 2013 and 2014 are at healthier levels than 2012.
An American Express survey of CFOs indicated business travel is steady as 61 percent of respondents said they plan on spending the same or more money on travel than last year.
7.2 Million International visitors came to the U.S. in 2012; seven percent more than 2011.
The hotel sector is trending up; room and occupancy rates are rising.
Bankruptcy restructuring for the Big Three airlines is complete.
Traveler sentiment remains comparatively high.
As with most economic forecasts, a cautionary note is warranted. This year, legislative factors affecting the depth and pace of economic recovery loom large. Sequestration measures will have an impact on two major components of US travel - air travel and national parks. The Federal Aviation Administration is facing budget reductions due to sequestration; which may result in longer wait times for passengers. As for the NPS, any reduction of park operating hours will likely impact visitor numbers. Changing regulatory climate will also impact tourism businesses. For example, why are the American Hotel and Lodging Association and US Travel Association concerned about new regulations affecting business travel, lower government per diem allowance, and government employee travel to meetings and conferences throughout the country?
Challenges and Opportunities in Rural America
According to the National Park Service Social Science program, over 200 NPS units are located in rural areas, about 50% of all park units. Why is this important? Currently, rural economics levels are at their lowest since the Great Depression. Park units can contribute to their long-term recovery through strong tourism related partnerships.
An economic research report published by the Department of Agriculture suggests rural counties benefit significantly from tourism; higher growth rates, lower poverty rates, and improvement in other social conditions.
Previously, tourism and recreation experienced rapid growth rates. According to the report rural counties that emphasized tourism and recreation in the 90s grew three times faster than those that did not. Reported data covered 311 recreation counties from 43 states, which thirty percent were in close proximity to federal lands.
Since the recession began in 2007, both rural and metro areas, have suffered economically. Until late 2010, employment growth numbers between the two were consistently similar. Disparity between rural and metro job growth rates has widened over the past two years, 1% versus 2.5% respectively (USDA, 2012 ). The primary explanation for this occurrence is slow growth in several rural sectors, including rural tourism.
Based on rural census data, prior to the 90s, both recreation and non-recreation counties had comparable populations. A decade later there was a significant change. The population of rural recreation counties had increased at a rate of 20% while non-recreation counties increase at a 7% rate. The economic study discovered rural recreation counties also became less dependent on one type of industry, such as manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture by a difference of 28%.
Economic growth is measured by various factors that contribute to the well being of a community. The report demonstrated rural tourism was associated with poverty reduction, higher education levels, and better health. Earnings per job showed no significant difference between recreation and non-recreation counties, but earnings per resident were higher ($2,000 more per year) because there were more opportunities for multiple jobs. Ultimately an increase in job opportunities to meet the demand of visitors provided better socio-economic conditions for residents.
Considering the role of NPS visitation in economic development, park units can assist in facilitating rural economic growth through cooperative tourism partnerships. Strategic planning and creating alliances can increase capacities and capabilities of each stakeholder by combining resources and expertise to enhance the development and marketing of tourism activities.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, tourism partners are not confined to a specific area. Regional partnerships bring together many communities- rural and urban- affording urban park managers to play a vital role in rural development.
For instance, the Mississippi National River Recreation Area (MNRRA), based in the St.Paul, MN, works with over 50 regional agencies to resolve issues of conservation, preservation and economic development. Together the group makes up the Trails and Open Space Partnership (TOSP). The common threads between the agencies are the Mississippi River and communities along its corridor; their mission is to protect the livability and social, cultural, and economic sustainability of communities.
According to Paul Labovitz, MNRRA Superintendent, \"through the TOSP, regional partners have grown a trail system that has helped Minneapolis become the most bicycle friendly city in the United States and has inspired Explore Minnesota Tourism, MN Department of Natural Resources, NPS and other trail partners to develop the PedalMN initiative with the goal to make Minnesota the most bicycle friendly state...\"
On a national level, NPS programs such as National Heritage Areas and heritage itineraries demonstrate more formalized partnerships with the tourism community. Both are supported by several sources on multiple levels - local, state, national - collaborating to highlight unique attributes of the US social and natural landscape.
Traveler curiosities for the authentic character and historical value of small town America have heightened the attention of rural community leaders and decision makers. Hence the increased importance on tourism related activities in these rural areas. Though a dampened economy over the past few years has slowed tourism development, marketing partnerships can boost the economics in these non-metro areas. Park Managers, using sustainable tourism tools, would proactively engage the gateway community to target consumers looking for unique cultural and natural experiences. Considering parks are intricately connected to these places, the importance of park managers participating in tourism development may shift from being a choice to a necessity.
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